Don’t ask a barber if you need a haircut. – Charlie Munger
The premise behind the model is that the behavior of humans (and indeed, many animals) can be shaped by rewards (positive reinforcement) and punishments (negative reinforcement).
Actions that are rewarded are likely to be repeated, and actions that are punished or lead to undesirable outcomes are likely to be avoided. This simple model is surprisingly powerful in predicting human behavior in a wide range of contexts....
Social proof describes how people think it is appropriate for them to believe, feel, or do something to the extent that other people are believing, feeling, or doing it too. Social proof provides both the validity that something is good as well as proof of possibility. It also works in reverse for example with the Bystander Effect.
The effect of social proof increases with:
A higher number of people involved The degree of similarity these people have to you Your level of uncertainty about how to behave in a situation The degree of collectivism in your culture Social proof is a concept from psychology and social science coined originally by Robert Cialdini in his book Influence....
Your circle of competence describes an area of knowledge where you have deep knowledge and an accurate understanding of reality. This means you know the rules and principles governing it. You have extensive practical experience in it. You know most of what there is to know, what you don’t know, and even what is knowable and unknowable. Building up your circle of competence takes a great deal of deliberate practice–meaning experience and reflection....
Framing is a concept from the social sciences, specifically from psychology and behavioral economics. It describes how we interpret things differently depending on how they’re presented. Even if the different presentation has nothing to do with the matter at hand.
Understanding this concept will help you see reality as it is. It can also protect you against manipulation and in turn, will make you more persuasive.
The concept is founded on how our brains deal with external stimuli....
Complex systems are unpredictable and don’t always work as anticipated. There are too many variables and interdependencies to fully understand them. Any input might change the system and some might lead to large unintended consequences. In some cases, the rules of the system might even change completely.
A margin of safety acts like insurance against this unpredictability. There is an expected outcome to every action. A margin of safety is the buffer you add on top of the expected outcome in case you are wrong....