The Setup
In the heart of the French Alps, my girlfriend and I embarked on a 5-day mountaineering course. Our ultimate goal? To conquer Mont Blanc, standing tall at 4,800 meters.
Preparation
We dedicated two months to intense training, building our endurance and leg strength to be in optimal condition for the climb. As first-time mountaineers, we invested heavily in our adventure, spending over €1,000 each on equipment. Despite our novice status, we were determined and excited about the challenge ahead.
The Team
Our group consisted of four climbers: my girlfriend and I, paired with two English guys. We were guided by two experienced mountaineers. Jordi, in his early 30s, was assigned to us. While he had ample mountaineering experience, his first love was rock climbing. Edmond, a seasoned 65-year-old veteran who had summited countless peaks, including Everest twice and K2 once, was guiding the English duo.
The Journey Begins
Days 1-2: Acclimatization
We spent the first two days on a two-day acclimatization hike up 3,500m, gradually getting used to the altitude. After returning to the valley and a good night’s sleep in the hotel, we felt fit and ready for the summit challenge.
Day 3: The Ascent Begins
On the third day, we took a cable car and train to the last station, then hiked about 500 meters up to the Tête Rousse hut, situated at 3,100 meters. This would be our base for the Mont Blanc summit attempt the next day.
The Summit Strategy
Our plan for Day 4 was ambitious. We would start our ascent early, aiming to cross the most dangerous part of the climb, the “Gouter Couloir” (also known as “the death couloir” because of the frequent rock fall at this location), at first light. After navigating this treacherous section, we faced a 1,600-meter climb on a physically demanding, but technically easy route, requiring only basic crampon technique. We aimed to reach the summit around 10:30 AM, then descend the 1,000m to the Gouter hut for the night. The entire climb is expected to take about 10 hours from Tête Rousse to Gouter hut.
The Turning Point
At Tête Rousse Hut
The initial hike to Tête Rousse was short, about two hours, and relatively easy despite the glaring sun and afternoon heat. Upon arrival, we settled into our rooms and joined fellow hikers on the sun terrace, enjoying a perfect view of the glacier and the couloir. The weather forecast for the next day was ideal, and we felt optimistic about our chances. We will have cloudless views across the French Alps.
Sudden Danger
Our relaxation was abruptly shattered by a loud crack. We watched in awe as a huge rockfall cascaded down the couloir. As we stood shocked on the terrace, the hut owner urgently called for everyone to get inside. Moments after we rushed to safety, a rock the size of a football struck the spot where we had just been standing. The rockfalls continued, though smaller in size, for another 40 minutes.
The Dilemma
Dinner Discussions
During dinner, we conversed with fellow hikers and the guides. Jordi revealed that he had been guiding clients up peaks for the entire season, about 2.5 months, with only brief breaks. He had already summited Mont Blanc ten times that season alone.
According to others in the hut, the rock fall was one of the bigger ones this season. It was so heavy that it not only covered the 100m couloir section but the whole area of the 30 minute climb up to the crossing point. One mountaineer died in the couloir just two days before during a smaller rock fall.
Conflicting Advice
After dinner, Jordi approached us with concerning news. He decided not to attempt the summit the next day because of the high risk of rock fall. He informed us that most other guides, except Edmond, had made the same decision. Jordi explained that the recent rockfall and the fatality in the same location just two days prior made him uneasy about proceeding.
When we asked about the cause of the rockfalls, Jordi admitted that it wasn’t fully understood. He mentioned a theory about water freezing overnight and melting in the morning, causing rocks to break apart and fall. This uncertainty was part of the reason guides typically ascended at first light when rockfalls were less frequent and visibility was better.
Edmond, on the other hand, remained committed to the ascent. His reasoning was simple: “What went down today won’t come down tomorrow.” Jordi countered this view, suggesting that the day’s major rockfall might have destabilized the area, increasing the likelihood of further incidents.
Reflection Questions
In our shoes, what would you have decided and why?
What mental models, biases, or principles would you apply to evaluate this situation?
What additional information would you seek to aid in this decision?
The Decision
Faced with this conflicting advice, we ultimately decided to trust Jordi’s judgment and descend. Nine other guides and their clients made the same choice. As an alternative, we climbed Mount Paradiso in Italy (4,080m) two days later. We later learned that the two English guys, together with Edmond, successfully summited Mont Blanc the following day and returned safely.
The Reasoning
Cost/Benefit Analysis: The biggest weight on my decision was that on the one hand there was unlimited downside (I could lose my life) and limited upside. I actually wasn’t set on Mont Blanc as a mountain and did the whole thing to learn more about mountaineering and go eventually unguided. This learning goal for the trip would also be achieved with Mount Paradiso. Jeff Schraeder had an interesting point on the benefit side when we were discussing this case study in the Wednesday Call. He argued that in some cases the huge risk makes it a true adventure for some people (e.g. “Adrenaline junkies” or explorer types). So the potential costs only increase the benefit side and completely flip the result of the equation.
Biases: I’ve recognized that recency bias likely played a big role on the guides decision, since we all saw the big rock fall. In addition, some of the more conservative guides almost certainly convinced some of the others with social proof or a kind of group think.
Circle of Competence: I was learning about mountaineering, but I considered it far out of my circle of competence. The guides on the other hand were seasoned pros with well over 100 climbs. Even though they were terrible at explaining their reasoning and argued more with a “feeling”. But experts often have problems explaining their intuition, because it has become tacit knowledge built up over large sets of experiences. All but one guide decided to not risk it, so the expert opinion was pretty clear.